Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 14 2021 11092 49079 363 106 62 87
March 15 2021 11097 49112 363 106 67 92
March 16 2021 11101 49153 363 106 59 87
March 17 2021 11120 49192 364 106 74 91
March 18 2021 11136 49225 367 106 90 106
March 19 2021 11143 49246 366 105 87 113
March 20 2021 11156 49307 367 105 82 114
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 1.1 11% 9 0.08% 11 0.1%
10-19 2 1.9 18.3% 15 0.11% 18 0.13%
20-29 4 1.3 15.9% 13 0.06% 19 0.09%
30-39 2 1.0 12.2% 10 0.07% 12 0.09%
40-49 -2 1.0 9.8% 8 0.08% 15 0.14%
50-59 3 1.6 12.2% 10 0.08% 14 0.11%
60-69 2 1.1 9.8% 8 0.07% 9 0.08%
70+ -2 1.0 11% 9 0.09% 16 0.15%
All ages 13 10.0 100% 82 0.08% 114 0.11%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 14 2021 7116 28876 226 93 51 73
March 15 2021 7120 28878 226 93 48 76
March 16 2021 7120 28897 228 93 43 68
March 17 2021 7126 28921 231 93 46 69
March 18 2021 7132 28945 231 93 50 67
March 19 2021 7139 28967 231 93 52 67
March 20 2021 7149 28987 231 93 56 72
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 -0.1 1.8% 1 0.01% 2 0.03%
10-19 0 1.1 23.2% 13 0.15% 14 0.17%
20-29 0 0.9 10.7% 6 0.08% 9 0.13%
30-39 1 0.4 8.9% 5 0.06% 8 0.1%
40-49 2 0.9 17.9% 10 0.13% 14 0.18%
50-59 1 0.4 8.9% 5 0.05% 6 0.06%
60-69 5 1.3 21.4% 12 0.14% 13 0.15%
70+ 1 0.1 7.1% 4 0.06% 6 0.08%
All ages 10 5.0 100% 56 0.09% 72 0.11%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 14 2021 5469 19027 241 76 68 107
March 15 2021 5472 19037 241 76 60 105
March 16 2021 5475 19056 242 76 54 106
March 17 2021 5480 19079 242 76 54 87
March 18 2021 5483 19123 242 76 53 82
March 19 2021 5484 19125 242 76 48 72
March 20 2021 5493 19163 243 76 47 72
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.1 6.4% 3 0.06% 4 0.07%
10-19 0 0.7 12.8% 6 0.11% 9 0.17%
20-29 0 0.3 6.4% 3 0.07% 4 0.09%
30-39 2 1.0 19.1% 9 0.17% 13 0.24%
40-49 0 0.0 14.9% 7 0.14% 10 0.2%
50-59 2 1.4 23.4% 11 0.16% 16 0.24%
60-69 3 0.4 6.4% 3 0.05% 8 0.13%
70+ 1 0.7 10.6% 5 0.08% 8 0.13%
All ages 9 4.7 100% 47 0.1% 72 0.16%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 14 2021 12297 54015 377 80 41 88
March 15 2021 12299 54062 377 80 42 88
March 16 2021 12305 54139 377 80 48 80
March 17 2021 12315 54207 377 80 54 68
March 18 2021 12323 54260 378 80 62 67
March 19 2021 12324 54256 378 80 62 67
March 20 2021 12336 54373 378 80 74 79
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.0 1.4% 1 0.01% 1 0.01%
10-19 1 0.4 8.1% 6 0.04% 2 0.01%
20-29 4 2.0 25.7% 19 0.09% 14 0.07%
30-39 0 1.1 14.9% 11 0.08% 6 0.04%
40-49 2 1.3 23% 17 0.13% 15 0.11%
50-59 2 1.4 21.6% 16 0.11% 7 0.05%
60-69 2 0.1 4.1% 3 0.02% 2 0.01%
70+ 0 0.3 1.4% 1 0.01% 2 0.02%
All ages 12 6.7 100% 74 0.06% 49 0.04%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 14 2021 41310 326123 1276 280 547 793
March 15 2021 41332 326316 1278 280 518 761
March 16 2021 41375 326531 1284 280 480 798
March 17 2021 41411 326591 1287 282 467 770
March 18 2021 41479 327007 1291 282 506 716
March 19 2021 41528 327292 1291 282 526 714
March 20 2021 41555 327317 1294 288 507 660
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 2.1 4.5% 23 0.04% 33 0.05%
10-19 6 7.7 17.8% 90 0.13% 117 0.16%
20-29 6 9.9 24.3% 123 0.12% 168 0.16%
30-39 5 6.4 17% 86 0.11% 106 0.14%
40-49 0 5.1 13.2% 67 0.1% 84 0.13%
50-59 4 6.6 14.4% 73 0.11% 92 0.14%
60-69 5 2.9 6.9% 35 0.06% 42 0.08%
70+ 1 1.1 2% 10 0.02% 18 0.04%
All ages 27 41.9 100% 507 0.09% 660 0.12%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 14 2021 569638 2669554 26791 6536 3830 5678
March 15 2021 569932 2671549 26821 6536 3774 5664
March 16 2021 570412 2672681 26889 6539 4048 5820
March 17 2021 570730 2675211 26942 6554 4037 5599
March 18 2021 571220 2677891 26994 6556 4349 5412
March 19 2021 571610 2679789 27024 6562 4276 5452
March 20 2021 572012 2682059 27072 6576 4162 5648
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 26 30.4 7.5% 312 0.05% 422 0.07%
10-19 62 59.1 15.6% 651 0.09% 873 0.12%
20-29 56 55.9 15.7% 655 0.09% 899 0.12%
30-39 69 62.3 16.7% 693 0.09% 904 0.12%
40-49 58 52.7 14.4% 599 0.09% 818 0.12%
50-59 61 62.4 16.3% 677 0.08% 880 0.11%
60-69 50 39.1 9.8% 406 0.05% 571 0.08%
70+ 20 16.3 4.1% 169 0.03% 281 0.04%
All ages 402 378.3 100% 4162 0.07% 5648 0.1%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
10.9 13.2 9.1 10 6 18.9%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
11.1 5 5 18.3%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
15.9 4.7 9.6 17.6%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
4.1 1.2 6.6 6.7 5.3 9.7%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
12.1 16.5 16.2 41.9 60.7 16.2%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
9.7 11.5 11.9 378.3 391.7 14.2%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-10 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5705"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red