Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 14 2021 | 11092 | 49079 | 363 | 106 | 62 | 87 |
| March 15 2021 | 11097 | 49112 | 363 | 106 | 67 | 92 |
| March 16 2021 | 11101 | 49153 | 363 | 106 | 59 | 87 |
| March 17 2021 | 11120 | 49192 | 364 | 106 | 74 | 91 |
| March 18 2021 | 11136 | 49225 | 367 | 106 | 90 | 106 |
| March 19 2021 | 11143 | 49246 | 366 | 105 | 87 | 113 |
| March 20 2021 | 11156 | 49307 | 367 | 105 | 82 | 114 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 1.1 | 11% | 9 | 0.08% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.9 | 18.3% | 15 | 0.11% | 18 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 1.3 | 15.9% | 13 | 0.06% | 19 | 0.09% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.0 | 12.2% | 10 | 0.07% | 12 | 0.09% |
| 40-49 | -2 | 1.0 | 9.8% | 8 | 0.08% | 15 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 1.6 | 12.2% | 10 | 0.08% | 14 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.1 | 9.8% | 8 | 0.07% | 9 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | -2 | 1.0 | 11% | 9 | 0.09% | 16 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 13 | 10.0 | 100% | 82 | 0.08% | 114 | 0.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 14 2021 | 7116 | 28876 | 226 | 93 | 51 | 73 |
| March 15 2021 | 7120 | 28878 | 226 | 93 | 48 | 76 |
| March 16 2021 | 7120 | 28897 | 228 | 93 | 43 | 68 |
| March 17 2021 | 7126 | 28921 | 231 | 93 | 46 | 69 |
| March 18 2021 | 7132 | 28945 | 231 | 93 | 50 | 67 |
| March 19 2021 | 7139 | 28967 | 231 | 93 | 52 | 67 |
| March 20 2021 | 7149 | 28987 | 231 | 93 | 56 | 72 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | -0.1 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.1 | 23.2% | 13 | 0.15% | 14 | 0.17% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.9 | 10.7% | 6 | 0.08% | 9 | 0.13% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.4 | 8.9% | 5 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 0.9 | 17.9% | 10 | 0.13% | 14 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.4 | 8.9% | 5 | 0.05% | 6 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 1.3 | 21.4% | 12 | 0.14% | 13 | 0.15% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.1 | 7.1% | 4 | 0.06% | 6 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 10 | 5.0 | 100% | 56 | 0.09% | 72 | 0.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 14 2021 | 5469 | 19027 | 241 | 76 | 68 | 107 |
| March 15 2021 | 5472 | 19037 | 241 | 76 | 60 | 105 |
| March 16 2021 | 5475 | 19056 | 242 | 76 | 54 | 106 |
| March 17 2021 | 5480 | 19079 | 242 | 76 | 54 | 87 |
| March 18 2021 | 5483 | 19123 | 242 | 76 | 53 | 82 |
| March 19 2021 | 5484 | 19125 | 242 | 76 | 48 | 72 |
| March 20 2021 | 5493 | 19163 | 243 | 76 | 47 | 72 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.1 | 6.4% | 3 | 0.06% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.7 | 12.8% | 6 | 0.11% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.3 | 6.4% | 3 | 0.07% | 4 | 0.09% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.0 | 19.1% | 9 | 0.17% | 13 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.0 | 14.9% | 7 | 0.14% | 10 | 0.2% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.4 | 23.4% | 11 | 0.16% | 16 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 0.4 | 6.4% | 3 | 0.05% | 8 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 10.6% | 5 | 0.08% | 8 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 9 | 4.7 | 100% | 47 | 0.1% | 72 | 0.16% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 14 2021 | 12297 | 54015 | 377 | 80 | 41 | 88 |
| March 15 2021 | 12299 | 54062 | 377 | 80 | 42 | 88 |
| March 16 2021 | 12305 | 54139 | 377 | 80 | 48 | 80 |
| March 17 2021 | 12315 | 54207 | 377 | 80 | 54 | 68 |
| March 18 2021 | 12323 | 54260 | 378 | 80 | 62 | 67 |
| March 19 2021 | 12324 | 54256 | 378 | 80 | 62 | 67 |
| March 20 2021 | 12336 | 54373 | 378 | 80 | 74 | 79 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.0 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.4 | 8.1% | 6 | 0.04% | 2 | 0.01% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 2.0 | 25.7% | 19 | 0.09% | 14 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.1 | 14.9% | 11 | 0.08% | 6 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 1.3 | 23% | 17 | 0.13% | 15 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.4 | 21.6% | 16 | 0.11% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 0.1 | 4.1% | 3 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.01% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 12 | 6.7 | 100% | 74 | 0.06% | 49 | 0.04% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 14 2021 | 41310 | 326123 | 1276 | 280 | 547 | 793 |
| March 15 2021 | 41332 | 326316 | 1278 | 280 | 518 | 761 |
| March 16 2021 | 41375 | 326531 | 1284 | 280 | 480 | 798 |
| March 17 2021 | 41411 | 326591 | 1287 | 282 | 467 | 770 |
| March 18 2021 | 41479 | 327007 | 1291 | 282 | 506 | 716 |
| March 19 2021 | 41528 | 327292 | 1291 | 282 | 526 | 714 |
| March 20 2021 | 41555 | 327317 | 1294 | 288 | 507 | 660 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.1 | 4.5% | 23 | 0.04% | 33 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 7.7 | 17.8% | 90 | 0.13% | 117 | 0.16% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 9.9 | 24.3% | 123 | 0.12% | 168 | 0.16% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 6.4 | 17% | 86 | 0.11% | 106 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 5.1 | 13.2% | 67 | 0.1% | 84 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.6 | 14.4% | 73 | 0.11% | 92 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 2.9 | 6.9% | 35 | 0.06% | 42 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.1 | 2% | 10 | 0.02% | 18 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 27 | 41.9 | 100% | 507 | 0.09% | 660 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 14 2021 | 569638 | 2669554 | 26791 | 6536 | 3830 | 5678 |
| March 15 2021 | 569932 | 2671549 | 26821 | 6536 | 3774 | 5664 |
| March 16 2021 | 570412 | 2672681 | 26889 | 6539 | 4048 | 5820 |
| March 17 2021 | 570730 | 2675211 | 26942 | 6554 | 4037 | 5599 |
| March 18 2021 | 571220 | 2677891 | 26994 | 6556 | 4349 | 5412 |
| March 19 2021 | 571610 | 2679789 | 27024 | 6562 | 4276 | 5452 |
| March 20 2021 | 572012 | 2682059 | 27072 | 6576 | 4162 | 5648 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 26 | 30.4 | 7.5% | 312 | 0.05% | 422 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 62 | 59.1 | 15.6% | 651 | 0.09% | 873 | 0.12% |
| 20-29 | 56 | 55.9 | 15.7% | 655 | 0.09% | 899 | 0.12% |
| 30-39 | 69 | 62.3 | 16.7% | 693 | 0.09% | 904 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 58 | 52.7 | 14.4% | 599 | 0.09% | 818 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 61 | 62.4 | 16.3% | 677 | 0.08% | 880 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 50 | 39.1 | 9.8% | 406 | 0.05% | 571 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 20 | 16.3 | 4.1% | 169 | 0.03% | 281 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 402 | 378.3 | 100% | 4162 | 0.07% | 5648 | 0.1% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.9 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 10 | 6 | 18.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.1 | 5 | 5 | 18.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.9 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 17.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 9.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.1 | 16.5 | 16.2 | 41.9 | 60.7 | 16.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.7 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 378.3 | 391.7 | 14.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-10 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5705"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges